1. BACKGROUND:

The Green Climate Fund (GCF) support the formulation of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and other adaptation planning processes to all developing countries as part of the Readiness Programme.  This support enables developing countries to plan and attract larger scale finance for more resilient futures by strengthening their adaptation planning processes.  These planning processes are key building blocks of countries’ ongoing efforts to bolster adaptive capacities, attract investment in adaptation from a diversity of sources, and to help galvanize public and private sector-led actions to make societies more climate-resilient.

Considering the anticipated impacts of climate change, Belize has recognized the need to strategically address future climatic threats. Threats to major sectors due to climate change are linked to changes in precipitation, sea surface and air temperature rise, ocean acidification, changes in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events and natural hazards, and limited access to climate financing.  These threats and impacts will be addressed through the formulation of climate sound plans and frameworks based on available scientific evidence, with consideration for the most vulnerable groups. The approach will seek to increase Belize’s resilience to climate change through improved adaptation planning, alignment to national policies and legislation, and capacity development and knowledge transfer, while also decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. It is imperative that all adaptive measures consider the collaborative efforts of the public and private sectors to address the associated challenges and impacts of climate change.

The Protected Areas Conservation Trust (PACT) has received accreditation by the GCF as a National Direct Access Accredited Entity. This role requires PACT to take on several responsibilities associated with the delivery of impactful projects within the priorities of the Fund, of PACT, and of Belize’s National Climate Change Policy & Plan and related frameworks. In collaboration with the Ministry of Economic Transformation (MET) as National Designated Authority (NDA) of Belize to the GCF, and the National Climate Change Office as UNFCCC Focal Point, PACT has received approval for financing from the GCF under its Readiness and Preparatory Support Programme for the project entitled “Enabling Activities for the Formulation and Implementation of a Multisectoral National Adaptation Plan for Belize”.

This project will guide the future development of some of the country’s major sectors under changing climatic conditions, inclusive of the following priority sectors: i) Land Use, Human Settlement & Infrastructure, ii) Tourism, iii) Human Health, iv) Agriculture, and v) Forestry. Enhancing cross-linkages with other sectors and other National Adaptation Plans using a multisectoral approach will ensure fortification of resilience to changes in the climate on a more holistic level and help to avoid duplication, concurrently supporting vulnerable populations.  The formulation and implementation of the NAP will enable Belize to formulate concrete interlinked solutions, adaptation actions in the priority sectors and will support the strengthening of existing mechanisms and adaptation responses at a multisectoral level.

The project is comprised of three substantive outcomes that will achieve the objective: 

Outcome 1: Adaptation planning governance and institutional coordination strengthened.

• • • Output 1: Capacity development plans outlined, and training provided.
    • Output 2: Adaptation solutions identified to address barriers and vulnerabilities to climate change with adaptation actions and measures developed and prioritized.

Outcome 2: Evidence- basis produced to design adaptation solutions for maximum impact.

• • • Output 1: Climate hazard impact, vulnerability and risk studies elaborated.
    • Output 2: Comprehensive Youth, Gender, and Social Assessment elaborated, inclusive of a roadmap for Children and Youth participation in Climate Change Action within the MNAP roadmap (including gender considerations, indigenous and other vulnerable groups).
    • Output 3: Adaptation impact monitoring, evaluation and learning systems established.
    • Output 4: Communication, outreach and knowledge transfer to relevant public, private and civil society decision-makers and other stakeholders undertaken.

Outcome 3: Adaptation Finance Increased

• • • Output 1: Climate Finance Strategies and Investment Plan for the priority sectors developed.
    • Output 2: Three GCF concept notes or the prioritized areas developed and submitted.

 2. OVERALL OBEJECTIVES

The objectives of this consultancy are:

1. 1. 1. Assist the Government in preparing sector-based Climate Financing Strategy, Policies and Regulations for the 5 priority areas (Human Health, Agriculture, Forestry, Tourism and Land Use, Human Settlement and Infrastructure) and a MNAP Climate Financing Investment Plan which will build on the MNAP Implementation Plan.
      2. Prepare funding strategies to cover costs for the MNAP towards achievement of proposed priority investments in the MNAP Implementation Plan, by clearly defining the expected contributions from climate finance, government, development partners and the private sector.
      3. Incorporate the estimated costs of these investments in the phases of the MNAP, including operational and capital expenditure budgets.
      4. Develop gender equality criteria to be integrated into the MNAP Investment Plan as well as indicators to ensure women’s empowerment and gender equality.
      5. A country-driven and fit-for-purpose approach should be prepared in a manner that is mindful of available resources and responds to a stated need of the government; ensure that the financing strategy is relevant, will be of use, and is based on the needs, perspectives, and priorities of the country.
      6. Financing strategy for adaptation prepared using a participatory and inclusive approach that includes representation from across government, the private sector, development partners, and civil society, including women’s groups, indigenous groups and other vulnerable communities.

The MNAP Financing Strategy and Investment Plan will provide sources of funding, resource mobilization processes and an updated schedule of investments to be implemented in the short term (2027-2029), medium term (2030-2034) and long term (2035-2050). The Financing Strategy and Investment plan will cover the same sub-programmes and activities as in the MNAP Implementation Plan. The climate change adaptation actions should prioritize strengthening strategic systems in agriculture, tourism, wildlife, and forest sectors. They should also focus on improving infrastructure, land use planning, health systems, and enhancing capacity, research, technology transfer, and financing for adaptation efforts. The actions should be aligned to the existing national policies, programmes and plans as well as the MNAP developed under this project and the other NAPs developed and the NDC 3.0.

3. SCOPE OF WORK

The consultant will elaborate on the Climate Financing Strategy for Belize’s 5 priority areas identified in the MNAP. The assignment will involve the following:

1. 1. 1. Establishing the team of consultants that will be responsible for the identification, collection and analysis of specified data, and other information in support of the successful completion of the tasks identified in this TOR.
      2. Analyse historic climate-related public and private expenditures in selected sectors, national or sub-national.
      3. Analyse required public and private investments for adaptation priority actions (e.g., through investment & financial flows analysis)
      4. Develop policy recommendations for improved sectoral financial architecture which could consider, among others, tax reforms, market mechanisms, etc.
      5. Assess policy coherence and conflicts and mainstreaming efforts at national and sub-national levels,
      6. Costing of the priority actions – In view of the priority actions identified in the MNAP and NDC 3.0, prepare costing details with clear source references. Compile an overall costing for the MNAP, which should specify funding available through government planned expenditure, Sector Plans, and Sub-national development Plans.
      7. Review the climate finance landscape in the country and assess funding gaps that require international support and private sector investments to enable Belize to be on track to reach the targets under the MNAP and NDC.
      8. Prepare MNAP climate financing strategy that identifies different options to cover gaps in the funding of the priority climate change activities. The financing options could include international climate financing through international funds, the cooperative approaches under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement, carbon markets as defined in Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, and private sector financing. The consultant should identify potential investment opportunities for the private sector implementation of the MNAP barriers for private sector investment and recommendations to address the barriers. The potential role of any existing Environmental and Climate Funds, once operational, the role of Green and Climate Bonds must also be considered.
      9. Organizing and facilitating in-country activities, including but not limited to questionnaire design and application, stakeholder meetings, trainings, workshops, and data collection and analysis for the successful conclusion of the work.
      10. Review previous experiences from other countries related to gender policies, multilateral financial mechanisms (i.e., GCF, GEF, AF, etc.), and other relevant climate finance strategies and mechanisms
      11. Prepare detailed implementation steps for the financing strategy. This should include a stakeholder mapping to identify the stakeholders implementing the actions, responsibilities of the different stakeholders, and realistic timelines to achieve the priority actions identified in the MNAP and NDC over the phases of the MNAP and NDC implementation Plan.
      12. Propose measures to increase private sector engagement and overcome barriers to incentivize climate action-related investments for mobilization of climate finance
      13. Identify capacity gaps and develop a related capacity building plan for public and private sector entities. This could include recommendations for raising awareness and providing training on business plans and innovative financing for climate priority actions under the MNAP and other sector NAPs, with the ultimate goal of strengthening public-private partnerships to mobilize and deliver on the climate change goals.
      14. Develop a country climate financing strategy taking into account public, private, bilateral and multilateral financing options
      15. Develop guidelines for resource mobilization according to the financing strategy for implementation of the MNAP, NDC and other climate change-related projects
      16. Recommend institutional arrangements for the oversight and coordination of climate finance activities in the country.

This work will require a thorough examination of the relevant national documents, including the MNAP Implementation Plan, MNAP sector analysis reports, the National Climate Change Strategy Action Master Plan, and the National Climate Finance Strategy of Belize 2021-2026.

The consultant is also expected to engage in depth discussions with key sector ministries and institutions under the MNAP including the Ministry of Economic Transformation, Ministry of Agriculture enterprise and Food Security, Ministry of Tourism and Diaspora Relations, Ministry of Health & Wellness, Ministry of Infrastructure Development and Housing, Ministry of Rural Transformation Labour and Local Government and Ministry of Sustainable Development, Climate Change and Solid (MSDCCSWM) and the private sector through series of meetings and workshops.

• Ensuring that the primary stakeholders (government agencies, community groups, private sector, women, indigenous groups, youth, etc.) are adequately consulted and that related issues within the project are adequately addressed.
• Consulting a wide range of stakeholders in conducting the tasks included in these terms of reference. These should include, but not be limited to:
  1. 1. Primary Stakeholders:
        1. The Ministry of Economic Transformation
        2. The Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Enterprise

• The Ministry of Health & Wellness

1. 1. 1. Ministry of Tourism, Youth, Sports and Diaspora Relations
      2. The Ministry of Infrastructure, Development and Housing
      3. The Ministry of Natural Resources, Petroleum and Mining

• The Ministry of Rural Transformation, Community Development, Labour and Local Government
• The Ministry of Human Development and Indigenous Affairs

1. 1. 1. The Ministry of Sustainable Development, Climate Change and Solid Waste Management
      2. The Belize Forest Department
      3. The National Climate Change Office

• The National Meteorological Service
• The Hydrology Unit
• The Ministry of Blue Economy

1. 1. 1. Other Key Stakeholders:
      2. Ministry of Education

• The Belize Tourism Board
• The Department of the Environment
• The National Emergency Management Organization
• The International Development and Humanitarian Agencies in Belize

1. 1. 1. Women’s Commission

• NGOs, CBOs, and private sector organizations

4. METHODOLOGY

1. Conduct stakeholder consultations, questionnaires, interviews, etc.
2. Consult with sector agencies, collect data, study and synthesize relevant data on budgets and costing.
3. Develop reports to assess the levels of expenditure on adaptation and capacity building, technology, and technology transfer.
4. Review of the MNAP Implementation Plan and other relevant documents, including the national and sector budgets from the government and private sector
5. Review budget allocation for climate finance with a focus on adaptation activities in the MNAP implementation plan.
6. Review previous experiences from other countries related to gender policies, multilateral financial mechanisms (i.e., GCF, GEF, AF, etc.) and other relevant investment planning mechanisms.
7. Review which projects and complementary measures of the MNAP implementation Plan that have been completed, are being prepared, or implemented.
8. Consult with stakeholders on the relevance and completeness of the MNAP Implementation Plan and identify new developments and gaps that have not been covered and lessons learned.
9. Prepare a MNAP Investment Plan which will include the following:
   1. 1. Establish key performance indicators for each sector inclusive of gender, indigenous and youth issues.
      2. Where applicable, conduct a demand analysis based on (among others) population forecasts and trends in ‘urbanization’, economic development, etc.
      3. Establish linkage of MNAP with #planBelize Vision 2.0 and NDC 3.0 objectives, and SDGs.
10. Establish the “gap” between demand and supply in ( “i” above and develop investments and complimentary measures for funding (i.e. from international funding, private sector, national budgets and other funding) to bridge the gap while meeting the MNAP target.
11. Prepare indicative cost estimates (up front capital and recurrent funding requirements) of the priority investments based on the “whole of life” costs of the proposed interventions, including the costs of operation, maintenance, and capital investments.
12. Where applicable, review the level of cost recovery of each of the would-be project implementers and assess the business case and the extent they can recover the costs of operation, maintenance, and capital investments.
13. For those sectors that (partly) rely on government subsidies, review the reliability of government subsidies for capital and recurrent costs provided over the last three years.
14. Assess the likely contribution from climate-related funds and development partners based on past contributions and existing country plans and agreements.
15. Assess the expected level of funding from the government budget over the next 10 years (MNAP implementation cycle) and assess the need, ability, and willingness of the government to borrow from public and private sources for investments in economic infrastructure.
16. Prepare a Climate Finance Strategies Investment Plan which should include the following:
17. Develop gender and social safeguard metrics and indicators, gender capacity needs, opportunities, and barriers removal strategies to be included in the MNAP Investment Plan.
18. Conduct an in-depth situational and contextual gender analysis and identification of gender responsive interventions to be included in the MNAP Investment Plan.
19. Review development partners’ country strategies and partnership agreements and estimate the tentative level of funding from external sources for economic infrastructure over the next 10 years.
20. Carry out a high-level review of the potential institutional constraints concerning financial governance, management, and implementation of the proposed MNAP activities and identify measures in various sub-sectors to overcome such constraints.
21. Recommend policies, institutional measures, and capacity development programs to enable implementation of the activities and identify potential involvement of the private sector in providing infrastructure services.
22. Prepare a draft, prioritized investment program, and complimentary measures, and draft an implementation schedule, to be presented to and approved by the MNAP Technical Committee.

4.1 General responsibilities

1. Desk review of the relevant documents by collecting, organizing, and synthesizing available information to gain an understanding of the country’s current situation, priorities, and overall analysis of the current NAPs.

• • • Refer to new literature and findings included in the National Communications, Greenhouse Gas Inventories, updated sectoral policies, assessments related to climate change vulnerabilities, and projections/models. Any other documents deemed necessary during the process should be referenced while ensuring alignment with the NDC updates.

1. Undertake a comprehensive political, environmental, social, technological, economic, and legal analysis of the objectives in context with national development while considering the current climate change models and predictions, historical data, model data, climate change projections, etc.
2. Follow a country-driven, gender and child sensitive, participatory and transparent approach that takes into consideration vulnerable groups, communities and eco-systems guided by relevant policies, strategies and plans.
3. Integrate adaptation in relevant social, economic, and environmental policies and actions based on and guided by the best available science and traditional and indigenous knowledge as appropriate.
4. Should not be prescriptive nor result in duplication of efforts already undertaken in Belize but facilitate country-owned and country-driven actions.

4.2.1 Expected Outputs / Deliverables 

Deliverable 1: Inception Report

An inception report detailing all tasks for the finance strategy and Implementation Plan, methodology on Financing strategy, costing, work plan, timeline, a list of national government institutions, civil society stakeholders, academia, and the private sector to be consulted.

Deliverable 2: First Draft Finance Strategy

A first draft of the financing strategy and Investment Plan, including costing details, funding gap, stakeholders’ mapping, and implementation strategy

Deliverable 3: Second Strategy Finance Strategy

A second draft of the Financing strategy, including the outcomes of the multi-stakeholder consultative process in all priority sectors of the MNAP, and reports of consultations.

And

A Second draft Investment Plan with costings for all adaptation actions/measures in the MNAP Plan.

Deliverable 4: Final Finance Strategy and Investment Plan

A final comprehensive and validated financing strategy and investment Plan report within 1 month of receiving the consolidated comments from the NCCO and MNAP Technical Working Group and other stakeholders, covering key aspects of the strategy covered in the scope of work, and clear recommendations for the next steps for actions by the public and private sector. The consultant should also develop a PowerPoint 6 presentation and a synthesis of the findings in the form of a matrix, flowchart, or any other format as required by NCCO and the Government.

4.2.2 Expected timeframe for completion of outputs/deliverables.